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HFEPX · Eval paper review

Prompt Lottery in LLM-as-a-Judge: Measuring and Mitigating Sensitivity to Syntactic Rephrasing

Ilija Subasic, Brett Levert, Andrew Rabinovich, Sajjad Pakdamansavoji +1 more

Published

Oct 27, 2026

Citations

0

Trust level

Moderate

Usefulness score

77/100 (High)

Extraction confidence

70% (Moderate)

Derived from extracted protocol signals and abstract evidence.

Rater population

Not reported

Signals refreshed

Oct 27, 2026

Should you rely on this paper?

This paper has strong direct human-feedback and evaluation protocol signal and is suitable as a primary eval pipeline reference.

Use this for comparison and orientation, not as your only source.

Best use

Primary benchmark and eval reference

Use if you need

A secondary eval reference to pair with stronger protocol papers.

What to verify

Validate the evaluation procedure and quality controls in the full paper before operational use.

Main weakness

No major weakness surfaced.

Human feedback signal
Detected
From extracted signals
Evaluation signal
Detected
Eval setup described
Usefulness for eval research
77/100
High-confidence candidate

Use this as a primary source when designing or comparing eval protocols.

Abstract

LLM-as-a-Judge has become a standard for evaluating large language models, yet most approaches implicitly assume that a single judge prompt functions as a stable evaluation instrument. Prior work has primarily explored deliberate prompt modifications such as scoring rubrics, role descriptions, or chain-of-thought reasoning in order to optimize accuracy. In contrast, we investigate whether validated prompt variants intended to preserve evaluation semantics while differing in surface realization (\textit{paraphrastic rephrasings}) yield consistent judgments under a fixed evaluation task. We introduce \textit{Prompt Lottery}, a phenomenon in which paraphrastic rephrasings produce different LLMaJ judgments. Across a large-scale study spanning diverse evaluation tasks, judge families, and model backbones, we find that these variations can alter evaluation outcomes and, in some settings, reverse relative model rankings. A user study with 10 human annotators shows that LLMaJ judges exhibit 6-9$\times$ larger agreement degradation under prompt rephrasings than humans, falling below the generally accepted threshold in usability studies. This indicates that single-prompt evaluation is insufficiently robust for model ranking. Finally, we show that multi-prompt aggregation substantially improves robustness by emphasizing judgments that remain consistent across prompt variants.

What we could verify

These are the protocol signals we could actually recover from the available paper metadata. Use them to decide whether this paper is worth deeper reading.

Human Feedback Types

strong

Rubric Rating

Directly usable for protocol triage.

"LLM-as-a-Judge has become a standard for evaluating large language models, yet most approaches implicitly assume that a single judge prompt functions as a stable evaluation instrument."

Evaluation Modes

strong

Llm As Judge, Automatic Metrics

Includes extracted eval setup.

"LLM-as-a-Judge has become a standard for evaluating large language models, yet most approaches implicitly assume that a single judge prompt functions as a stable evaluation instrument."

Quality Controls

missing

Not reported

No explicit QC controls found.

"LLM-as-a-Judge has become a standard for evaluating large language models, yet most approaches implicitly assume that a single judge prompt functions as a stable evaluation instrument."

Benchmarks / Datasets

missing

Not extracted

No benchmark anchors detected.

"LLM-as-a-Judge has become a standard for evaluating large language models, yet most approaches implicitly assume that a single judge prompt functions as a stable evaluation instrument."

Reported Metrics

strong

Accuracy, Agreement

Useful for evaluation criteria comparison.

"Prior work has primarily explored deliberate prompt modifications such as scoring rubrics, role descriptions, or chain-of-thought reasoning in order to optimize accuracy."

Benchmarks and datasets

No benchmark or dataset names were extracted from the available abstract.

Reported metrics

accuracyagreement
Human feedback details
Uses human feedback
Yes
Feedback types
Rubric Rating
Rater population
Not reported
Unit of annotation
Multi Dim Rubric
Expertise required
General
Evaluation details
Evaluation modes
Llm As Judge, Automatic Metrics
Agentic eval
None
Quality controls
Not reported
Evidence quality
Moderate
Use this page as
Primary benchmark and eval reference

Research brief

Metadata summary

LLM-as-a-Judge has become a standard for evaluating large language models, yet most approaches implicitly assume that a single judge prompt functions as a stable evaluation instrument.

Based on abstract + metadata only. Check the source paper before making high-confidence protocol decisions.

Key takeaways

  • LLM-as-a-Judge has become a standard for evaluating large language models, yet most approaches implicitly assume that a single judge prompt functions as a stable evaluation instrument.
  • Prior work has primarily explored deliberate prompt modifications such as scoring rubrics, role descriptions, or chain-of-thought reasoning in order to optimize accuracy.
  • In contrast, we investigate whether validated prompt variants intended to preserve evaluation semantics while differing in surface realization (\textit{paraphrastic rephrasings}) yield consistent judgments under a fixed evaluation task.

Researcher actions

  • Compare this paper against nearby papers in the same arXiv category before using it for protocol decisions.
  • Validate inferred eval signals (Automatic metrics) against the full paper.
  • Use related-paper links to find stronger protocol-specific references.

Caveats

  • Generated from abstract + metadata only; no PDF parsing.
  • Signals below are heuristic and may miss details reported outside the abstract.

Recommended queries

Contribution summary

  • LLM-as-a-Judge has become a standard for evaluating large language models, yet most approaches implicitly assume that a single judge prompt functions as a stable evaluation instrument.
  • We introduce Prompt Lottery, a phenomenon in which paraphrastic rephrasings produce different LLMaJ judgments.
  • Finally, we show that multi-prompt aggregation substantially improves robustness by emphasizing judgments that remain consistent across prompt variants.

Why it matters for eval

  • LLM-as-a-Judge has become a standard for evaluating large language models, yet most approaches implicitly assume that a single judge prompt functions as a stable evaluation instrument.
  • In contrast, we investigate whether validated prompt variants intended to preserve evaluation semantics while differing in surface realization (paraphrastic rephrasings) yield consistent judgments under a fixed evaluation task.

Researcher checklist

  • Human feedback protocol is explicit

    Detected: Rubric Rating

  • Evaluation mode is explicit

    Detected: Llm As Judge, Automatic Metrics

  • Quality control reporting appears

    No calibration/adjudication/IAA control explicitly detected.

  • Benchmark or dataset anchors are present

    No benchmark/dataset anchor extracted from abstract.

  • Metric reporting is present

    Detected: accuracy, agreement