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Just how sure are you? Improving Verbalized Uncertainty Calibration in Medical VQA

Eren Senoglu, Federico Toschi, Nicolo Brunello, Andrea Sassella, Mark James Carman · Jun 25, 2026 · Citations: 0

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How to use this page

Provisional trust

This page is a lightweight research summary built from the abstract and metadata while deeper extraction catches up.

Best use

Background context only

What to verify

Read the full paper before copying any benchmark, metric, or protocol choices.

Evidence quality

Provisional

Derived from abstract and metadata only.

Abstract

Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) applied to Medical Visual Question Answering (VQA) tend to produce overconfident outputs regardless of actual correctness, and existing verbalized confidence calibration methods, developed primarily for text only LLMs, do not account for the multimodal nature of medical image understanding. This work proposes a training based framework that finetunes MLLMs to improve their calibration using a composite loss function combining a Brier style calibration term, an anchor regularizer that prevents confidence collapse toward extreme values, a contrastive image text alignment term, and a KL based model stabilization term. The alignment signal is derived from a $2 \times 2$ factorial perturbation design that crosses image presence with text integrity, probing the reliance of the model on visual modality input versus language priors. Finally, a top K KL divergence regularizer is used to protect the answering ability of the model during finetuning. Across three Medical VQA benchmarks and two architectures (MedGemma 4B IT and Qwen2 VL 7B Instruct), our method reduces calibration error by 60% or more, and improves discrimination by 26% or more, while preserving predictive accuracy. On average across benchmarks, the technique outperforms prompting based, sampling based, and training based approaches, and ablation experiments confirm that each component of the loss function is indeed necessary for improving the calibration. All code for the experiments is publicly available.

Abstract-only analysis — low confidence

All signals on this page are inferred from the abstract only and may be inaccurate. Do not use this page as a primary protocol reference.

  • This page is still relying on abstract and metadata signals, not a fuller protocol read.
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Should You Rely On This Paper?

Signal extraction is still processing. This page currently shows metadata-first guidance until structured protocol fields are ready.

Best use

Background context only

Use if you need

A provisional background reference while structured extraction finishes.

Main weakness

This page is still relying on abstract and metadata signals, not a fuller protocol read.

Trust level

Provisional

Usefulness score

Unavailable

Eval-fit score is unavailable until extraction completes.

Human Feedback Signal

Not explicit in abstract metadata

Evaluation Signal

Weak / implicit signal

Usefulness for eval research

Provisional (processing)

Extraction confidence 0%

If you are doing eval pipeline work, start here:

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What We Could Verify

These are the protocol signals we could actually recover from the available paper metadata. Use them to decide whether this paper is worth deeper reading.

Human Feedback Types

provisional (inferred)

None explicit

No explicit feedback protocol extracted.

"Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) applied to Medical Visual Question Answering (VQA) tend to produce overconfident outputs regardless of actual correctness, and existing verbalized confidence calibration methods, developed primarily for text only LLMs, do not account for the multimodal nature of medical image understanding."

Evaluation Modes

provisional (inferred)

Automatic metrics

Includes extracted eval setup.

"Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) applied to Medical Visual Question Answering (VQA) tend to produce overconfident outputs regardless of actual correctness, and existing verbalized confidence calibration methods, developed primarily for text only LLMs, do not account for the multimodal nature of medical image understanding."

Quality Controls

provisional (inferred)

Not reported

No explicit QC controls found.

"Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) applied to Medical Visual Question Answering (VQA) tend to produce overconfident outputs regardless of actual correctness, and existing verbalized confidence calibration methods, developed primarily for text only LLMs, do not account for the multimodal nature of medical image understanding."

Benchmarks / Datasets

provisional (inferred)

Not extracted

No benchmark anchors detected.

"Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) applied to Medical Visual Question Answering (VQA) tend to produce overconfident outputs regardless of actual correctness, and existing verbalized confidence calibration methods, developed primarily for text only LLMs, do not account for the multimodal nature of medical image understanding."

Reported Metrics

provisional (inferred)

Accuracy, Calibration

Useful for evaluation criteria comparison.

"Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) applied to Medical Visual Question Answering (VQA) tend to produce overconfident outputs regardless of actual correctness, and existing verbalized confidence calibration methods, developed primarily for text only LLMs, do not account for the multimodal nature of medical image understanding."

Rater Population

provisional (inferred)

Unknown

Rater source not explicitly reported.

"Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) applied to Medical Visual Question Answering (VQA) tend to produce overconfident outputs regardless of actual correctness, and existing verbalized confidence calibration methods, developed primarily for text only LLMs, do not account for the multimodal nature of medical image understanding."

Human Feedback Details

This page is using abstract-level cues only right now. Treat the signals below as provisional.

  • Potential human-data signal: No explicit human-data keywords detected.
  • Potential benchmark anchors: No benchmark names detected in abstract.
  • Abstract highlights: 3 key sentence(s) extracted below.

Evaluation Details

Evaluation fields are inferred from the abstract only.

  • Potential evaluation modes: Automatic metrics
  • Potential metric signals: Accuracy, Calibration
  • Confidence: Provisional (metadata-only fallback).

Research Brief

Metadata summary

Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) applied to Medical Visual Question Answering (VQA) tend to produce overconfident outputs regardless of actual correctness, and existing verbalized confidence calibration methods, developed primarily for text only LLMs, do not account for the multimodal nature of medical image understanding.

Based on abstract + metadata only. Check the source paper before making high-confidence protocol decisions.

Key Takeaways

  • Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) applied to Medical Visual Question Answering (VQA) tend to produce overconfident outputs regardless of actual correctness, and existing verbalized confidence calibration methods, developed primarily for text only LLMs, do not account for the multimodal nature of medical image understanding.
  • This work proposes a training based framework that finetunes MLLMs to improve their calibration using a composite loss function combining a Brier style calibration term, an anchor regularizer that prevents confidence collapse toward extreme values, a contrastive image text alignment term, and a KL based model stabilization term.
  • The alignment signal is derived from a $2 \times 2$ factorial perturbation design that crosses image presence with text integrity, probing the reliance of the model on visual modality input versus language priors.

Researcher Actions

  • Compare this paper against nearby papers in the same arXiv category before using it for protocol decisions.
  • Validate inferred eval signals (Automatic metrics) against the full paper.
  • Use related-paper links to find stronger protocol-specific references.

Caveats

  • Generated from abstract + metadata only; no PDF parsing.
  • Signals below are heuristic and may miss details reported outside the abstract.

Recommended Queries

Accuracy

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