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HFEPX · Eval paper review

Calibrated Triage, Not Autonomy: Confidence Estimation for Medical Vision-Language Models

Reza Khanmohammadi, Kundan Thind, Mohammad M. Ghassemi

Published

Jun 14, 2026

Citations

0

Trust level

Low

Usefulness score

0/100 (Low)

Extraction confidence

35% (Low)

Derived from extracted protocol signals and abstract evidence.

Rater population

Not reported

Signals refreshed

Aug 20, 2026

Should you rely on this paper?

This paper is adjacent to HFEPX scope and is best used for background context, not as a primary protocol reference.

Use this as background context only. Do not make protocol decisions from this page alone.

Best use

Background context only

Use if you need

A secondary eval reference to pair with stronger protocol papers.

What to verify

Validate the evaluation procedure and quality controls in the full paper before operational use.

Main weakness

This paper looks adjacent to evaluation work, but not like a strong protocol reference.

Human feedback signal
Not explicit
Not explicit in abstract metadata
Evaluation signal
Detected
Eval setup described
Usefulness for eval research
0/100
Adjacent candidate

Treat as adjacent context, not a core eval-method reference.

Abstract

A vision-language model can answer a question about a chest radiograph or a pathology slide fluently and confidently while barely using the image, relying instead on language priors. In medicine this is the failure that matters most: the answer looks trustworthy and is not, and the natural safeguard is a confidence score reliable enough to say when the model should abstain. We ask a deployment question rather than an accuracy one: how much medical imaging work a vision-language model can safely defer on its own, and which confidence signal makes that possible. We evaluate nine confidence estimators, spanning training-free logit baselines, prompt-based self-reports, and trained internal probes, across five open-weight LVLMs and three medical VQA datasets covering broad clinical imaging, radiology, and pathology, every probe trained only on natural images and applied to medicine without adaptation. Recast as bounded selective prediction, the comparison is cautionary. Standard metrics mislead: discrimination barely separates the estimators, and a fixed high-confidence cutoff separates them far less than it appears, because their scores sit on incomparable scales; no estimator is reliably best across domains or models. What can be safely deferred is set at two levels: base-model competence fixes a ceiling, and the confidence layer determines how much of it is reachable. At a 20% error tolerance the strongest estimator defers about a quarter of radiology cases under a distribution-free guarantee and a third under a held-out threshold, and little to none of pathology. The usable role is calibrated triage under clinical oversight, not autonomous deferral: a good estimator makes a competent model defer safely where it is competent, but none manufactures reliability where the base model lacks it. We release all outputs, correctness judgments, and confidence scores, with code.

What we could verify

These are the protocol signals we could actually recover from the available paper metadata. Use them to decide whether this paper is worth deeper reading.

Human Feedback Types

missing

None explicit

No explicit feedback protocol extracted.

"A vision-language model can answer a question about a chest radiograph or a pathology slide fluently and confidently while barely using the image, relying instead on language priors."

Evaluation Modes

partial

Automatic Metrics

Includes extracted eval setup.

"A vision-language model can answer a question about a chest radiograph or a pathology slide fluently and confidently while barely using the image, relying instead on language priors."

Quality Controls

missing

Not reported

No explicit QC controls found.

"A vision-language model can answer a question about a chest radiograph or a pathology slide fluently and confidently while barely using the image, relying instead on language priors."

Benchmarks / Datasets

missing

Not extracted

No benchmark anchors detected.

"A vision-language model can answer a question about a chest radiograph or a pathology slide fluently and confidently while barely using the image, relying instead on language priors."

Reported Metrics

partial

Accuracy

Useful for evaluation criteria comparison.

"We ask a deployment question rather than an accuracy one: how much medical imaging work a vision-language model can safely defer on its own, and which confidence signal makes that possible."

Benchmarks and datasets

No benchmark or dataset names were extracted from the available abstract.

Reported metrics

accuracy
Human feedback details
Uses human feedback
No
Feedback types
None
Rater population
Not reported
Expertise required
Medicine, Coding
Evaluation details
Evaluation modes
Automatic Metrics
Agentic eval
None
Quality controls
Not reported
Evidence quality
Low
Use this page as
Background context only

Research brief

Metadata summary

A vision-language model can answer a question about a chest radiograph or a pathology slide fluently and confidently while barely using the image, relying instead on language priors.

Based on abstract + metadata only. Check the source paper before making high-confidence protocol decisions.

Key takeaways

  • A vision-language model can answer a question about a chest radiograph or a pathology slide fluently and confidently while barely using the image, relying instead on language priors.
  • In medicine this is the failure that matters most: the answer looks trustworthy and is not, and the natural safeguard is a confidence score reliable enough to say when the model should abstain.
  • We ask a deployment question rather than an accuracy one: how much medical imaging work a vision-language model can safely defer on its own, and which confidence signal makes that possible.

Researcher actions

  • Compare this paper against nearby papers in the same arXiv category before using it for protocol decisions.
  • Validate inferred eval signals (Automatic metrics) against the full paper.
  • Use related-paper links to find stronger protocol-specific references.

Caveats

  • Generated from abstract + metadata only; no PDF parsing.
  • Signals below are heuristic and may miss details reported outside the abstract.

Recommended queries

Contribution summary

  • We ask a deployment question rather than an accuracy one: how much medical imaging work a vision-language model can safely defer on its own, and which confidence signal makes that possible.
  • We evaluate nine confidence estimators, spanning training-free logit baselines, prompt-based self-reports, and trained internal probes, across five open-weight LVLMs and three medical VQA datasets covering broad clinical imaging, radiology,…
  • At a 20% error tolerance the strongest estimator defers about a quarter of radiology cases under a distribution-free guarantee and a third under a held-out threshold, and little to none of pathology.

Why it matters for eval

  • Abstract shows limited direct human-feedback or evaluation-protocol detail; use as adjacent methodological context.

Researcher checklist

  • Human feedback protocol is explicit

    No explicit human feedback protocol detected.

  • Evaluation mode is explicit

    Detected: Automatic Metrics

  • Quality control reporting appears

    No calibration/adjudication/IAA control explicitly detected.

  • Benchmark or dataset anchors are present

    No benchmark/dataset anchor extracted from abstract.

  • Metric reporting is present

    Detected: accuracy