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Baguan-TS: A Sequence-Native In-Context Learning Model for Time Series Forecasting with Covariates

Linxiao Yang, Xue Jiang, Gezheng Xu, Tian Zhou, Min Yang, ZhaoYang Zhu, Linyuan Geng, Zhipeng Zeng, Qiming Chen, Xinyue Gu, Rong Jin, Liang Sun · Mar 18, 2026 · Citations: 0

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How to use this paper page

Coverage: Stale

Use this page to decide whether the paper is strong enough to influence an eval design. It summarizes the abstract plus available structured metadata. If the signal is thin, use it as background context and compare it against stronger hub pages before making protocol choices.

Best use

Background context only

Metadata: Stale

Trust level

Provisional

Signals: Stale

What still needs checking

Structured extraction is still processing; current fields are metadata-first.

Signal confidence unavailable

Abstract

Transformers enable in-context learning (ICL) for rapid, gradient-free adaptation in time series forecasting, yet most ICL-style approaches rely on tabularized, hand-crafted features, while end-to-end sequence models lack inference-time adaptation. We bridge this gap with a unified framework, Baguan-TS, which integrates the raw-sequence representation learning with ICL, instantiated by a 3D Transformer that attends jointly over temporal, variable, and context axes. To make this high-capacity model practical, we tackle two key hurdles: (i) calibration and training stability, improved with a feature-agnostic, target-space retrieval-based local calibration; and (ii) output oversmoothing, mitigated via context-overfitting strategy. On public benchmark with covariates, Baguan-TS consistently outperforms established baselines, achieving the highest win rate and significant reductions in both point and probabilistic forecasting metrics. Further evaluations across diverse real-world energy datasets demonstrate its robustness, yielding substantial improvements.

Use caution before copying this protocol

Use this page for context, then validate protocol choices against stronger HFEPX references before implementation decisions.

  • Structured extraction is still processing; current fields are metadata-first.
Human Eval Hub LLM-as-Judge Hub Pairwise Preference Hub

HFEPX Relevance Assessment

Signal extraction is still processing. This page currently shows metadata-first guidance until structured protocol fields are ready.

Best use

Background context only

Use if you need

A provisional background reference while structured extraction finishes.

Main weakness

Structured extraction is still processing; current fields are metadata-first.

Trust level

Provisional

Eval-Fit Score

Unavailable

Eval-fit score is unavailable until extraction completes.

Human Feedback Signal

Not explicit in abstract metadata

Evaluation Signal

Weak / implicit signal

HFEPX Fit

Provisional (processing)

Extraction confidence: Provisional

If you are doing eval pipeline work, start here:

Human Eval Hub LLM-as-Judge Hub Pairwise Preference Hub Tool-Use Eval Hub

What This Page Found In The Paper

Each field below shows whether the signal looked explicit, partial, or missing in the available metadata. Use this to judge what is safe to trust directly and what still needs full-paper validation.

Human Feedback Types

provisional

None explicit

Confidence: Provisional Best-effort inference

No explicit feedback protocol extracted.

Evidence snippet: Transformers enable in-context learning (ICL) for rapid, gradient-free adaptation in time series forecasting, yet most ICL-style approaches rely on tabularized, hand-crafted features, while end-to-end sequence models lack inference-time adaptation.

Evaluation Modes

provisional

None explicit

Confidence: Provisional Best-effort inference

Validate eval design from full paper text.

Evidence snippet: Transformers enable in-context learning (ICL) for rapid, gradient-free adaptation in time series forecasting, yet most ICL-style approaches rely on tabularized, hand-crafted features, while end-to-end sequence models lack inference-time adaptation.

Quality Controls

provisional

Not reported

Confidence: Provisional Best-effort inference

No explicit QC controls found.

Evidence snippet: Transformers enable in-context learning (ICL) for rapid, gradient-free adaptation in time series forecasting, yet most ICL-style approaches rely on tabularized, hand-crafted features, while end-to-end sequence models lack inference-time adaptation.

Benchmarks / Datasets

provisional

Not extracted

Confidence: Provisional Best-effort inference

No benchmark anchors detected.

Evidence snippet: Transformers enable in-context learning (ICL) for rapid, gradient-free adaptation in time series forecasting, yet most ICL-style approaches rely on tabularized, hand-crafted features, while end-to-end sequence models lack inference-time adaptation.

Reported Metrics

provisional

Win rate, Calibration

Confidence: Provisional Best-effort inference

Useful for evaluation criteria comparison.

Evidence snippet: To make this high-capacity model practical, we tackle two key hurdles: (i) calibration and training stability, improved with a feature-agnostic, target-space retrieval-based local calibration; and (ii) output oversmoothing, mitigated via context-overfitting strategy.

Rater Population

provisional

Unknown

Confidence: Provisional Best-effort inference

Rater source not explicitly reported.

Evidence snippet: Transformers enable in-context learning (ICL) for rapid, gradient-free adaptation in time series forecasting, yet most ICL-style approaches rely on tabularized, hand-crafted features, while end-to-end sequence models lack inference-time adaptation.

Human Data Lens

This page is using abstract-level cues only right now. Treat the signals below as provisional.

  • Potential human-data signal: No explicit human-data keywords detected.
  • Potential benchmark anchors: No benchmark names detected in abstract.
  • Abstract highlights: 3 key sentence(s) extracted below.

Evaluation Lens

Evaluation fields are inferred from the abstract only.

  • Potential evaluation modes: No explicit eval keywords detected.
  • Potential metric signals: Win rate, Calibration
  • Confidence: Provisional (metadata-only fallback).

Research Brief

Metadata summary

Transformers enable in-context learning (ICL) for rapid, gradient-free adaptation in time series forecasting, yet most ICL-style approaches rely on tabularized, hand-crafted features, while end-to-end sequence models lack inference-time adaptation.

Based on abstract + metadata only. Check the source paper before making high-confidence protocol decisions.

Key Takeaways

  • Transformers enable in-context learning (ICL) for rapid, gradient-free adaptation in time series forecasting, yet most ICL-style approaches rely on tabularized, hand-crafted features, while end-to-end sequence models lack inference-time adaptation.
  • We bridge this gap with a unified framework, Baguan-TS, which integrates the raw-sequence representation learning with ICL, instantiated by a 3D Transformer that attends jointly over temporal, variable, and context axes.
  • To make this high-capacity model practical, we tackle two key hurdles: (i) calibration and training stability, improved with a feature-agnostic, target-space retrieval-based local calibration; and (ii) output oversmoothing, mitigated via context-overfitting strategy.

Researcher Actions

  • Compare this paper against nearby papers in the same arXiv category before using it for protocol decisions.
  • Check the full text for explicit evaluation design choices (raters, protocol, and metrics).
  • Use related-paper links to find stronger protocol-specific references.

Caveats

  • Generated from abstract + metadata only; no PDF parsing.
  • Signals below are heuristic and may miss details reported outside the abstract.

Recommended Queries

Win rate

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Papers are ranked by protocol overlap, extraction signal alignment, and semantic proximity.

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