Modeling Long- and Short-Term Temporal Patterns with Deep Neural Networks
Guokun Lai, Wei-Cheng Chang, Yiming Yang, Hanxiao Liu
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Multivariate time series forecasting is an important machine learning problem across many domains, including predictions of solar plant energy output, electricity consumption, and traffic jam situation. Temporal data arise in these real-world applications often involves a mixture of long-term and short-term patterns, for which traditional approaches such as Autoregressive models and Gaussian Process may fail. In this ...
paper, we proposed a novel deep learning framework, namely Long- and Short-term Time-series network (LSTNet), to address this open challenge. LSTNet uses the Convolution Neural Network (CNN) and the Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) to extract short-term local dependency patterns among variables and to discover long-term patterns for time series trends. Furthermore, we leverage traditional autoregressive model to tackle the scale insensitive problem of the neural network model. In our evaluation on real-world data with complex mixtures of repetitive patterns, LSTNet achieved significant performance improvements over that of several state-of-the-art baseline methods. All the data and experiment codes are available online.
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Multivariate time series forecasting is an important machine learning problem across many domains, including predictions of solar plant energy output, electricity consumption, and traffic jam situation.
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2,049
Citations
36
References
Tasks
Computer science, Recurrent neural network, Time series, Deep learning, Artificial neural network, Term (time), Gaussian process, Dependency (UML)
Methods
Leverage (statistics), Autoregressive model, Data modeling
Domains
Artificial intelligence, Machine learning
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